Will the comprehensive agreement in Bangsamoro provide a peaceful and lasting solution to the insurgency and security challenges in the Southern Philippines?

This paper addresses the question of whether the 'Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro' will provide a peaceful and lasting solution to the insurgency and security situation in the Southern Philippines. It briefly outlines the background to the conflict, and analyses three dynamic factors that have progressed, hindered or derailed the peace process.

The paper argues that the interaction of the political situation in Manila and the fractious nature of the rebel groups make a peaceful solution difficult. Moreover, it contends that should Islamic State establish a presence in the region, it will make it extremely unlikely that an enduring peaceful solution will be found. The paper concludes that this situation is likely to continue to challenge the social, economic and security circumstances in the Southern Philippines, and the Philippine Government more broadly.

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