Why isn't Australia's future submarine project further advanced?

This paper examines why Australia's future submarine project has not progressed as expected since its announcement as a major capability priority in the 2009 Defence White Paper. It contends that six years later, key questions remain unanswered, such as why Australia needs submarines, how many we need, whether Australia is capable of building them, what is the best capability option, what they will cost, and what the opportunity costs would be.

The paper notes that while both sides of politics agree that a replacement submarine is critical to Australia's national security, and that progress is required to avoid the prospect and consequences of a capability gap, they both appear strongly conscious of not repeating the lessons of the Collins-class submarines—and seem to be approaching the policy-making process with extreme caution. The paper concludes that the consequences of further inaction, obfuscation and politicisation are significant, and that there is a real prospect of Australia having no submarine capability at all in future years.

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