The 'vicious diplomacy' of coercion: China's military exercises in the Taiwan Strait

This edition of The Looking Glass explores the evolution of China's strategy toward Taiwan, how the August PLA exercises around Taiwan fit within it, and identify some of the major implications for cross Strait relations and Sino-US relations.

The authors argue that China's approach to the Taiwan issue can be usefully framed as coercive diplomacy. In particular, the PLA ETC's exercises in and around the Taiwan Strait from 3 to 10 August are consistent with a form of coercive diplomacy, where China's conception of deterrence is based on both dissuasion and compellence. China's military exercises serve to remind Australia that 'international politics often takes place in a grey region involving no-peace and no-war, wherein the threat of violence more than its mere application is the critical variable for an understanding of interstate relations and crises'.

The latest exercises bear some similarity to those of 1995–96, as they seek to both deter Taiwan and the US from moves that would violate Beijing's interpretation of the 'One China policy' and to compel Taiwan toward acceptance of Beijing's goal of 'reunification'. Yet, the geostrategic and political realities in which the recent exercises have unfolded– in particular the shifting balance of military power in the Taiwan Strait, the hardening of Taiwanese opinion against the very idea of 'reunification', and the Chinese domestic political context – open up more pathways for potential miscalculation and escalation than in 1995–96.

Authors