The United States' Asia-Pacific policy and the rise of the dragon

This paper examines the shifting balance of power in the Asia-Pacific region brought about by China's economic and social transformation. It examines the US 'pivot' to the Asia-Pacific, and China's likely responses, with a particular focus on the implications for Australia.

The paper notes that although increased strategic competition between China and the US can be expected, the economic interdependencies between them make conflict unlikely. It concludes that a more likely outcome is that China and the US will eventually arrive at some form of power-sharing arrangement, likely requiring greater recognition by the US of China's role and influence in the region. However, whether that accommodation can be achieved peacefully, and how this will affect Australia, will likely rest just as heavily on the US as it does on China.

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