The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands dispute: the likely impact of any constitutional change by Japan on its relations with China

This paper examines the likely impact of any constitutional change by Japan on its relations with China, particularly in the context of the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute. It notes that while several policy options have been canvassed as potential solutions to the dispute, none is seemingly palatable to one or both parties, suggesting that a long-term solution is not foreseeable, and that the potential for increased tension will remain.

The paper argues that while Japan's recent constitutional reinterpretation is not likely to impact the Senkaku/Diaoyu dispute, any change to allow a more liberal use of Japan's military forces would likely result in increased regional tensions, particularly in terms of Japan's relations with China. The paper concludes that in the interests of maintaining a stable regional security environment, Japan—and other influential parties—need to be particularly cognisant of the risks involved in advancing any such proposal.

This paper was also published in the Indo-Pacific Strategic Digest series.

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