The rise of China and the US response: time for Australia to think about anti-access and area-denial warfare

This paper examines the challenge that the rise of China presents for Australian defence planning, especially in the context of the Australia‐US alliance. It argues that the changing Asia‐Pacific security environment, represented by the rise of China, its rapid military modernisation and its increasing assertiveness in several regional flashpoints, should prompt Australia to develop robust military options in case a future conflict arises that requires a counter to China's anti‐access/area‐denial (A2/AD) capabilities, as part of a US–led coalition.

This paper does not contend that war with China is inevitable but simply that it is plausible and that Australia should think more deeply about it. It proposes six options for how Australia might, if required and desired to secure Australia's strategic interests, operate alongside the US in a conflict with China in the Western Pacific as part of a counter‐A2/AD effort. It concludes by proposing four force structure enhancements to the ADF which, if acquired, would enable it to more deeply participate in operations to counter China's A2/AD capabilities.

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