Putin's progress: how will the war in Ukraine play out?

Vladimir Putin's massive invasion of Ukraine has yielded a number of surprises. The first was that many analysts did not believe Putin would have the audacity to launch such a full scale operation. Another has been the spirited resistance of the Ukrainian armed forces. Perhaps the biggest surprise has been the extent to which Ukraine's resistance has not only emboldened the West to go harder on Russia than many anticipated, but also how it increasingly suggests Putin has misjudged the war in key respects: the quality of his forces; the weakness of the US and EU; and the implications for his own political fortunes.

In this February 2022 edition of The Looking Glass, the authors take a deeper dive into what the likely outcomes of Putin's invasion might be, in the context of Kremlin war aims, and find that every scenario is potentially damaging for Putin domestically. Geopolitically, while Putin may well succeed in expanding Russia's sphere of influence, he will face a more united (and possibly enlarged) NATO, as well as a more robust EU: the very outcomes he has been seeking to prevent.

Authors