How will China's assertiveness in the South China Sea affect Australia's national interests over the next ten years?

This paper addresses the question of whether China's assertiveness in the South China Sea is likely to affect Australia's national interests over the next ten years. It notes that China has been demonstrating increasingly-assertive behaviour in the South China Sea, which has the potential to affect Australia's national interests through the pressure being placed on the framework of the rules-based global order, with particular implications for freedom of navigation within and through the South China Sea.

The paper argues that Australia will need to tread carefully in showing its resolve, not least in balancing the relative merits of strategic monogamy with the US against the increasing importance of its Asian economic relationships, notably with China. The paper concludes that Canberra's approach should not be a binary choice but a careful balancing of Australia's interests, which would also provide an opportunity for Australia to emerge as an influential player in contributing to the security and stability of the region.

This paper was also published in the Indo-Pacific Strategic Digest series.

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