China-India: an analysis of the Himalayan territorial dispute

This paper examines the dispute between China and India over their shared Himalayan border. It assesses that the likelihood of a major Sino-Indian conflict over the border is remote, notwithstanding the ever-present possibility of limited skirmishes and territorial forays. It argues that there are significant constraining factors that will limit military assertiveness and the effects of miscalculation by either side for the foreseeable future.

The paper concludes that the current strategic stalemate along the 'roof of the world' will continue to result in a relatively stable but tense security status quo. However, it also notes that an ongoing, seemingly intractable dispute between the two most populated countries in the world is not conducive to longer-term regional stability.

This paper was also published in the Indo-Pacific Strategic Digest series.

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