The Bougainville independence referendum: assessing the risks and challenges before, during and after the referendum

This paper analyses some of the key political and strategic dynamics of Bougainville's promised referendum, due to be held between 2015 and 2020. It identifies a number of significant risks, primarily located in the period before and after the vote. These are connected to likely frustrations should legal impediments be raised to the holding of the referendum, issues related to the resumption of mining and the role of spoilers, and differing expectations between the PNG Government and Bougainvilleans over the outcome and how it will be implemented.

The paper argues that much can and should be done between now and the referendum to help mitigate these challenges, requiring pro-active support from key states in the region. While it is not inevitable that Bougainville will return to bloody conflict, if major risks are not identified and countered—and tensions are allowed to rise unabated—it could have serious consequences for Bougainville, PNG and the immediate region.

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